Predictions – Biggest Exits in Indian Internet Space in coming years

There would be multiple Consolidations, Mergers, Change of Strategies by lot of VC-invested companies by 2015.
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Product based eCommerce companies:

Lot of interest seen in recent times by VCs. LetsBuy, Snapdeal, FashionAndYou, Flipkart, and so on, Infibeam as well (though still not part of any portfolio yet). Future of eCommerce companies will depend completely on two factors:

- Internet penetration in India > 200 Mn by that time
- Improvement in eCommerce transactions (Infrastructure + User Comfort)

The rate at which investments are made are much higher than rate of growth of both the factors mentioned above – which in a way may be good – as all invested companies will act as catalyst in growth and get new set consumers on-board.

If we see an IPO exit for atleast one of product based eCommerce companies that will be awesome;  One or Two VCs in India (without naming any here) have been actively investing in eCommerce space. There may be a very high possibility that they may merge two or more portfolio companies to form an large entity, which may be just a good acquisition target for Amazon or an IPO exit.
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Group Buying companies:
 

Was surprised (like many others?) with GroupOn‘s decision of acquiring SoSasta. There are established players in Group Buying space, I’m sure GroupOn has seen some merit and synergies. For existing leading players like SnapDeal, Deals and You and Taggle – they will continue to grow and have to.

Possible exit for them will be Google (since they are starting with Google Offers) or an acquisition by eBay; or maybe GroupOn India may now want to expand presence with one more acquisition. Not to forget that LivingSocial will also come knocking. Now that eBay has ventured into Group Buying space – it has much higher accountability as deals are now served by eBay and not marketplace. eBay India may acquire someone if they decide to have an experienced them to execute this business vertical.

Expect one very large player to enter Group Buying space in next 1-2 months, if well executed – in all probability it may give tough challenge to current market leaders.

Unfortunately many small players will hit the dead pool (few of them have already) due to execution challenges, expansion costs, and lack of operating revenues to keep going as the model is very easy to replicate, but not easy to scale with thin-margins and high acquisition cost.
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Online Travel Companies:
 

Clear IPOs for Yatra & Cleartrip. Will be great exit for all invested players. GoIbibo and ezeego1 are also leading players in travel domain – Goibibo’s exit may depend on ibibo’s overall plans, ezeego1 may raise capital through markets directly bypassing VC route.

Redbus is promising, they are very high on number of transactions – ticket size may be lower compared to Airline tickets, but % margins will be definitely higher. In all probabilities – Redbus may too hit an IPO or will be an acquisition target for Yatra or Cleartrip (listed travel companies by then as MakeMyTrip has acquired Ticketvala)

I hope someone in Indian Government thinks of the opportunity of listing IRCTC on stock markets.
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Ticketing eCommerce:
 

BookMyShow will expand to more geographies – they have presence in Malaysia & New Zealand. To get to more such markets, they will require more capital – further investment and definite IPO candidate. Reliance ADAG is trying to make it big in entertainment through BIG – they might knock doors.
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Technology Companies:
 

Pubmatic (industry’s first yield optimization player) may get acquired in few years. It faces good competition from AdMeld & Rubicon Project, however none of these yield companies are focusing on small publishers (the long tail) which may be the key to larger success.
iYogi by all speculation is IPO bound. Slideshare is leading in its segment and may be a great exit story. Fusion Charts is another one that may be acquired for technology and customers; and so is Martjack.
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Advertising Networks:
 

Existing players – Tyroo, Komli, Ozone Media, AdMagnet and others. Do not forecast a immediate exit for these players – the number of players in this segment has been same for long time (no new entrants) – and otherwise too existing players seem to looking outside of India, are they hinting saturation of market? The frequency of acquisitions of pure advt-networks has decreased outside India (no big news in so many months?).

There is no distinct advantage over each other and offerings (if Vizisense is treated as product outside of Advt-Network). Would have been great to see an situation like AdMax Network (owns up majority market share in countries they operate – very tough competition to Google as they have leveraged on local language audience which is majority).

Google has played a flattener by opening up its unlimited inventory on Doubleclick exchange through Google Certified AdNetworks program. Post which the publisher development story may have taken some hit, but wondering why have not the Indian Advt Networks integrated on Google’s Doubleclick exchange yet – expand you publisher network!

InMobi which is now the largest mobile advt network (outside of Google/AdMob) – maybe one of the biggest exits through Nasdaq IPO. There is no immediate need for Google to buy another mobile advt network – that leaves IPO as only logical exit unless AOL, Yahoo or Microsoft realize that they haven’t looked at the mobile monetization business seriously.
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Matrimony Portals:
 

BharatMatrimony (Consim Group) would be going for IPO in coming times. Not aware of any investors in Shaadi.com (although there are in Mauj & Fropper), if business is profitable and there are no investor pressures – unlikely to see an IPO from them (at least before BharatMatrimony).
Read somewhere that Jeevansathi has abandoned markets in South India (not sure of this), however its already a part of listed InfoEdge group, spin-off very unlikely as numbers are reported as part of InfoEdge.
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No Clear Exits:
 

SMS GupShup, Guruji, mCommerce companies (PayMate, mChek and others) are few companies I am not convinced of having an clear exit strategy. (Someone do throw light on this)
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Promising Startups:
 

The next wave of promising startups in India will be product-driven companies. Although the eco-system to fast acceptance of technology products is not so strong right now – it will be in coming years. Emergence of interesting start-ups like Practo, Zaakpay, Grexit, emo2, Workasaur are first steps in that direction.
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Hoping to see many success in next 5 years! Best Wishes

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The U.S. is Catching Up to The World in the SMS Marketing Race

Mobile marketing is marketing directly to consumers through SMS messaging, leveraging the growing number of mobile phone owners and users. Mobile (or text) marketing is predicted to be the next major global technology phenomenon, and to a certain extent it is already used across Europe and Asia by businesses of all sizes to deliver targeted marketing messages on a wholesale scale.

Mobile marketing business consultants and service providers already have access to the frameworks for dealing with SMS text marketing, yet still the US market remains behind much of the rest of the world in mobile SMS marketing.

The US is surprisingly far behind when it comes to utilizing available mobile technologies. While the Internet is very much the domain of US business, in mobile communications the US seems to lag some way behind the rest of the world. There are 36 countries in the world that have over 100% per-capita usage of mobile phones, including many otherwise poor and indebted nations. The US, for whatever reason, isn’t one of these countries.

Forecasts predict that the US will reach the 100% mark by 2013, putting it behind many other countries already far beyond that level of market penetration. When we examine the statistics, the US is currently sitting at 86% per-capita usage, compared to Taiwan’s 106%, the UK’s 120%, Italy’s 140% and 150% in Hong Kong and Estonia (this means that there are more mobile phones than people). This also means there is still some way to go before the US is ‘in’ as deep as many of its European and Asian counterparts. However, this may mean that mobile marketing in the US has an even longer lifespan at maximum responsiveness, while the penetration of the technologies reaches the levels of other nations.

There are still gaps to be exploited in mobile technologies in the US. This doesn’t mean that the effectiveness of SMS marketing is reduced, rather it may give it a level of exclusivity that makes it even MORE effective. As noted earlier, signs are showing that the gap in overall mobile phone penetration between the US and Asia is closing. For advertisers, this means the mobile marketing business is still in it’s infancy, but looks like it is here to stay. For those looking to jump on board, the rewards for being an early adopter may prove even more valuable.

With mobile marketing, business owners across the world are realizing the benefits of this kind of promotion on their bottom line. The mobile marketing business looks set to continue to grow at a rapid rate over the next few years. Consumers in the US are yet to be fully exposed to marketing through SMS, and as such are still very responsive to message passed through this medium.

Indeed, when compared to broadcast and print marketing, the results are staggering. As such, it’s only a matter of time before the mobile marketing business in the US catches up with the more established mobile marketing business sectors in Europe and Asia, which will provide advertisers with a whole world of new marketing possibilities.
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Why I Am Hindu?

Hi Friends,

The following mail comes into one of my friend inbox from a very dear friend. I am heartily thankful to him for forwarding such a mail. This blog post has nothing to do with religion but to explain why Hinduism existed for so long. Read and think… Be proud of being what you are!

Four years ago, I was flying from JFK NY Airport to SFO to attend a meeting at Monterey , CA An American girl was sitting on the right side, near window seat. It indeed was a long journey – it would take nearly seven hours.

I was surprised to see the young girl reading a Bible unusual of young Americans. After some time she smiled and we had few acquaintances talk.I told her that I am from India

Then suddenly the girl asked: ‘What’s your faith?’ ‘What?’ I didn’t understand the question.

‘I mean, what’s your religion? Are you a Christian? Or a Muslim?’

‘No!’ I replied, ‘I am neither Christian nor Muslim’.
Apparently she appeared shocked to listen to that. ‘Then who are you?’ ‘I am a Hindu’, I said.

She looked at me as if she was seeing a caged animal. She could not understand what I was talking about.

A common man in Europe or US knows about Christianity and Islam, as they are the leading religions of the world today. But a Hindu, what?

I explained to her – I am born to a Hindu father and Hindu mother. Therefore, I am a Hindu by birth.

‘Who is your prophet?’ she asked.

‘We don’t have a prophet,’ I replied.

‘What’s your Holy Book?’

‘We don’t have a single Holy Book, but we have hundreds and thousands of philosophical and sacred scriptures,’ I replied.

‘Oh, come on at least tell me who is your God?’

‘What do you mean by that?’

‘Like we have Jesus and Muslims have Allah – don’t you have a God?’

I thought for a moment. Muslims and Christians believe one God (Male God) who created the world and takes an interest in the humans who inhabit it. Her mind is conditioned with that kind of belief.

According to her (or anybody who doesn’t know about Hinduism), a religion needs to have one Prophet, one Holy book and one God. The mind is so conditioned and rigidly narrowed down to such a notion that anything else is not acceptable. I understood her perception and concept about faith. You can’t compareHinduism with any of the present leading religions where you have to believe in one concept of god.

I tried to explain to her: ‘You can believe in one god and he can be a Hindu. You may believe in multiple deities and still you can be a Hindu. What’s more – you may not believe in god at all, still you can be a Hindu. An atheist can also be a Hindu.’

This sounded very crazy to her. She couldn’t imagine a religion so unorganized, still surviving for thousands of years, even after onslaught from foreign forces.

‘I don’t understand but it seems very interesting. Are you religious?’
What can I tell to this American girl?

I said: ‘I do not go to temple regularly. I do not make any regular rituals. I have learned some of the rituals in my younger days. I still enjoy doing it sometimes..’

‘Enjoy? Are you not afraid of God?’

‘God is a friend. No- I am not afraid of God. Nobody has made any compulsions on me to perform these rituals regularly.’

She thought for a while and then asked: ‘Have you ever thought of converting to any other religion?’

‘Why should I? Even if I challenge some of the rituals and faith in Hinduism, nobody can convert me from Hinduism. Because, being a Hindu allows me to think independently and objectively, without conditioning. I remain as a Hindu never by force, but choice.’ I told her thatHinduism is not a religion, but a set of beliefs and practices. It is not a religion like Christianity or Islam because it is not founded by any one person or does not have an organized controlling body like the Church or the Order, I added. There is no institution or authority..

‘So, you don’t believe in God?’ she wanted everything in black and white.

‘I didn’t say that. I do not discard the divine reality. Our scripture, or Sruthis or Smrithis – Vedas and Upanishads or the Gita – say God might be there or he might not be there. But we pray to that supreme abstract authority (Para Brahma) that is the creator of this universe.’

‘Why can’t you believe in one personal God?’

‘We have a concept – abstract – not a personal god. The concept or notion of a personal God, hiding behind the clouds of secrecy, telling us irrational stories through few men whom he sends as messengers, demanding us to worship him or punish us, does not make sense. I don’t think that God is as silly as an autocratic emperor who wants others to respect him or fear him.’ I told her that such notions are just fancies of less educated human imagination and fallacies, adding that generally ethnic religious practitioners inHinduism believe in personal gods. The entry level Hinduism has over-whelming superstitions too. The philosophical side of Hinduism negates all superstitions.

‘Good that you agree God might exist. You told that you pray. What is your prayer then?’

‘Loka Samastha Sukino Bhavantu. Om Shanti, Shanti, Shanti,’

‘Funny,’ she laughed, ‘What does it mean?’

‘May all the beings in all the worlds be happy. Om Peace, Peace, Peace.’

‘Hmm ..very interesting. I want to learn more about this religion. It is so democratic, broad-minded and free’ she exclaimed.

‘The fact is Hinduism is a religion of the individual, for the individual and by the individual with its roots in the Vedas and the Bhagavad-Gita. It is all about an individual approaching a personal God in an individual way according to his temperament and inner evolution – it is as simple as that.’

‘How does anybody convert to Hinduism?’

‘Nobody can convert you to Hinduism, because it is not a religion, but a set of beliefs and practices. Everything is acceptable in Hinduism because there is no single authority or organization either to accept it or to reject it or to oppose it on behalf of Hinduism.’

I told her – if you look for meaning in life, don’t look for it in religions; don’t go from one cult to another or from one guru to the next.

For a real seeker, I told her, the Bible itself gives guidelines when it says ‘ Kingdom of God is within you.’ I reminded her of Christ’s teaching about the love that we have for each other. That is where you can find the meaning of life.

Loving each and every creation of the God is absolute and real. ‘Isavasyam idam sarvam’ Isam (the God) is present (inhabits) here everywhere – nothing exists separate from the God, because God is present everywhere. Respect every living being and non-living things as God. That’s whatHinduism teaches you.

Hinduism is referred to as Sanathana Dharma, the eternal faith. It is based on the practice of Dharma, the code of life. The most important aspect ofHinduism is being truthful to oneself. Hinduism has no monopoly on ideas.- It is open to all. Hindus believe in one God (not a personal one) expressed in different forms. For them, God is timeless and formless entity.

Ancestors of today’s Hindus believe in eternal truths and cosmic laws and these truths are opened to anyone who seeks them. But there is a section of Hindus who are either superstitious or turned fanatic to make this an organized religion like others. The British coin the word ‘Hindu’ and considered it as a religion.

I said: ‘Religions have become an MLM (multi-level- marketing) industry that has been trying to expand the market share by conversion. The biggest business in today’s world is Spirituality. Hinduism is no exception’

I am a Hindu primarily because it professes Non-violence – ‘Ahimsa Paramo Dharma’ – Non violence is the highest duty. I am a Hindu because it doesn’t conditions my mind with any faith system.
A man/ woman who change ’s his/her birth religion to another religion is a fake and does not value his/her morals, culture and values in life.Hinduism was the first religion originated. Be proud of your religion and be proud of who you are.

Om Namo shiva....... ........
Hari OM


Send it to all Hindus who you think will find it interesting!!!!!!!!!!!
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2010: The Best of Times or the Worst?

Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”

The following are a few of my predictions and reasons behind them…

Prediction #1: The real estate market will crash again.

chart5.gif

Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:

1. In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed.

2. The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm. In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.

3. The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?

4. In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?

5. Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?

6. The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.

My prediction: Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.

Other things I am watching for in 2010:

1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.

2. When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.

3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.

4. The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less.

5. The deficit will increase. The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.

Chart6.gif

6. Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof.

7. Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.

The Best of Times

I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.

The following are the bright spots for people who are prepared.

Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010.

The following recaps the year-end prices of gold and silver:

YEAR GOLD SILVER
2000 $ 273 $ 4.57
2001 $ 279 $ 4.57
2002 $ 348 $ 4.78
2003 $ 416 $ 5.92
2004 $ 438 $ 6.79
2005 $ 518 $ 8.80
2006 $ 638 $12.78
2007 $ 838 $14.77
2008 $ 882 $11.33
2009 $1100 (approx) $17.50 (approx)

In 2009, the Dow rose approximately 18%. Gold rose approximately 25%. Silver rose approximately 50%.

By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.

Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.

Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.

My Personal Investments

As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”

The following are things I have done to prepare myself:

1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income.

2. 2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects. Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.

3. My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes. Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.

4. I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.

5. I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.

6. With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.

7. In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.

In Conclusion

A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990. Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.

We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.

Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.
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Next Bill Gates could be from India or China

A sizable number of Americans believe that the next Bill Gates would come from India or China - as the two Asian giants are fast marching ahead on the global platform, a new US survey has revealed. "When asked where the 'next Bill Gates will come from,' 40 per cent of Americans predicted either India or China," said a national survey released by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) on the sidelines of the world's largest consumer technology tradeshow at Las Vegas.

The vast majority of them, about 96 per cent, believe that innovation was critical to the future success of the US as a world economic leader but they were concerned that the rising federal deficit would jeopardize prosperity of future generations, the survey said.

The economic survey, conducted by Zogby International, found that 68 per cent of Americans think innovation was key to the future success of their place of employment, with 50 per cent maintaining that innovation was important for their job remaining in the US.

After the World Economic Forum reported that the US has lost its global competitiveness ranking while India, China and Brazil have gained, 74 per cent of Americans said it was unlikely the US would regain its status next year.

But 44 per cent pointed to innovation was the most important factor in seeking US competitiveness, it said.

According to the survey, nearly 60 per cent Americans agreed that the rising national deficit would have a "major impact" on the prosperity of future generations.

But when it comes to reducing the deficit, they were largely split on three issues: discontinuing corporate bailouts (23 per cent), reducing military spending (20 per cent), and relying on the free market to correct the imbalance (31 per cent).

Nearly 60 per cent of the respondents said that they were concerned that current path being taken by Congress would be detrimental to medical innovation.

Tensions seemed to run high: nearly half of them said they were "very concerned," the survey said.

The Zogby survey was conducted between November 20 and 23, with a sample size of 3,779 US adults over the age of 18.
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Salaries likely to increase by up to 20% in 2010

Hiring activities in India Inc have gone up by 15-20% in the last four months compared with 2008, an indication that the job market is opening up and companies are loosening controls imposed on recruitment, training expenses and salary hikes.

HR consulting firms FE spoke to said the calendar year 2010 looks hopeful not only on the hiring front, but for salaries and bonuses as well. However, companies will continue to remain conservative on salary hikes across the board.

The exorbitant salaries and huge bonuses for people at the top management level, which saw a dip of about 25-30% in their cost to company (CTC) during the slowdown, could go up by 15-20% in 2010. This will include managing directors, chief executives, chief financial officers, senior vice-presidents and executive directors.

"In percentage terms, the total package might not move up significantly, but other benefits like perks and variable pay are expected to increase," said Arunima Sharma, principal consultant at Execuzen. Moreover, huge bonuses of about 80-100% will now shrink to 30-50%.

The top-level salary in the BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) sector at present is more than Rs 1 crore per annum compared with more than Rs 2-3 crore in the beginning of 2008.

In the manufacturing and engineering sectors, it is still lower at around Rs 80 lakh, compared with Rs 1 crore earlier. IT/ITeS, which took the maximum hit during the downturn, is ready to give salaries in the range of Rs 1.5 to Rs 5 crore. Pharma is still lower by 10-15% against the 2008 levels. Salary at the top level in this sector is between Rs 75 and 80 lakh per annum.

In the media sector, current salaries at the top level are more than Rs 1 crore, whereas, for retail and real estate sector, salaries might go up from Rs 75 lakhs and Rs 1 crore, respectively, per annum .

Said Shiv Agrawal, CEO of ABC Consultants, "Salaries at the top level are expected to increase in the range of 8-15%. The 15-20% hike will be exceptional for very good performers. The 2010 salaries will see more variable pay component, which will be performance driven."

According to Sharma, more and more expats from Europe and Japan are also looking to come back to India, especially in the financial services and advertising sectors. "I expect that by March 2010, we will see a turnaround and things will be back to normal in terms of salaries," she said.

Meanwhile, experts say hiring will continue, albeit to meet pent up demand (where hiring was frozen in the downturn and is now opening up).

According to Naukri JobSpeak index for November 2009, hiring activities saw a significant push across all sectors with auto, insurance and telecom sectors seeing a double-digit percentage growth.

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A Brilliant Interview

Some, rather most organizations reject his CV today because he has changed jobs frequently (10 in 14 years). My friend, the ˜job hopper™ (referred here as Mr. XYZ), does not mind it. well he does not need to mind it at all. Having worked full-time with 10 employer companies in just 14 years gives Mr. XYZ the relaxing edge that most of the ˜company loyal™ employees are struggling for today. Today, Mr. XYZ too is laid off like some other 14-15 year experienced guys “ the difference being the latter have just worked in 2-3 organizations in the same number of years. Here are the excerpts of an interview with Mr.XYZ :

Q: Why have you changed 10 jobs in 14 years?

A: To get financially sound and stable before getting laid off the second time.

Q: So you knew you would be laid off in the year 2009?

A: Well I was laid off first in the year 2002 due to the first global economic slowdown. I had not got a full-time job before January 2003 when the economy started looking up; so I had struggled for almost a year without job and with compromises.

Q: Which number of job was that?

A: That was my third job.

Q: So from Jan 2003 to Jan 2009, in 6 years, you have changed 8 jobs to make the count as 10 jobs in 14 years?

A: I had no other option. In my first 8 years of professional life, I had worked only for 2 organizations thinking that jobs are deserved after lot of hard work and one should stay with an employer company to justify the saying ˜employer loyalty™. But I was an idiot.

Q: Why do you say so?

A: My salary in the first 8 years went up only marginally. I could not save enough and also, I had thought that I had a ˜permanent™ job, so I need not worry about ˜what will I do if I lose my job™. I could never imagine losing a job because of economic slowdown and not because of my performance. That was January 2002.

Q: Can you brief on what happened between January 2003 and 2009.

A: Well, I had learnt my lessons of being ˜company loyal™ and not ˜money earning and saving loyal™. But then you can save enough only when you earn enough. So I shifted my loyalty towards money making and saving “ I changed 8 jobs in 6 years assuring all my interviewers about my stability.

Q: So you lied to your interviewers; you had already planned to change the job for which you were being interviewed on a particular day?

A: Yes, you can change jobs only when the market is up and companies are hiring. You tell me “ can I get a job now because of the slowdown? No. So one should change jobs for higher salaries only when the market is up because that is the only time when companies hire and can afford the expected salaries.

Q: What have you gained by doing such things?

A: That's the question I was waiting for. In Jan 2003, I had a fixed salary (without variables) of say Rs. X p.a. In January 2009, my salary was 8X. So assuming my salary was Rs.3 lakh p.a. in Jan 2003, my last drawn salary in Jan 2009 was Rs.24 lakh p.a. (without variable). I never bothered about variable as I had no intention to stay for 1 year and go through the appraisal process to wait for the company to give me a hike.

Q: So you decided on your own hike?

A: Yes, in 2003, I could see the slowdown coming again in future like it had happened in 2001-02. Though I was not sure by when the next slowdown would come, I was pretty sure I wanted a ˜debt-free™ life before being laid off again. So I planned my hike targets on a yearly basis without waiting for the year to complete.

Q: So are you debt-free now?

A: Yes, I earned so much by virtue of job changes for money and spent so little that today I have a loan free 2 BR flat (1200 sq.. feet) plus a loan free big car without bothering about any EMIs. I am laid off too but I do not complain at all. If I have laid off companies for money, it is OK if a company lays me off because of lack of money.

Q: Who is complaining?

A: All those guys who are not getting a job to pay their EMIs off are complaining. They had made fun of me saying I am a job hopper and do not have any company loyalty. Now I ask them what they gained by their company loyalty; they too are laid off like me and pass comments to me “ why will you bother about us, you are already debt-free. They were still in the bracket of 12-14 lakh p.a. when they were laid off.

Q: What is your advice to professionals?

A: Like Narayan Murthy had said “ love your job and not your company because you never know when your company will stop loving you. In the same lines, love yourself and your family needs more than the company's needs. Companies can keep coming and going; family will always remain the same. Make money for yourself first and simultaneously make money for the company, not the other way around.

Q: What is your biggest pain point with companies?

A: When a company does well, its CEO will address the entire company saying, ˜well done guys, it is YOUR company, keep up the hard work, I am with you. But when the slowdown happens and the company does not do so well, the same CEO will say, Å“It is MY company and to save the company, I have to take tough decisions including asking people to go. So think about your financial stability first; when you get laid off, your kids will complain to you and not your boss.

Comment Please :)
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Layoff Letter from my Friend

Name: Amit Arora (name changed on request)
Age:
27
Company/Sector:
IT/Technology and Consulting
Work experience:
4 years.

Background:

I had a major blast working in a IT consulting company for the last 3 years. I joined it in 2006 as a software test engineer and due to my added advantage as an eloquent orator and superb interpersonal skills, I made very quick progress and was sent on a long onsite trip to different projects which lasted over a year.

How I lost my job

2008 had been slow but steady and towards the end, unfortunately my project ended and I was placed on bench (which is generally tension-free time to be spent in between projects where people often go foe trainings or go on vacations).

But this time things were different. One project had ended and the next projects bid went to some other company.

Most of the people on bench were made a part of a list. The list was created to make sure that those people could be laid off. They needed some reason to show for a layoff besides cost cutting to avoid looking ugly.

So they asked the staffing team (which is responsible for getting people staffed onto projects) to not let the people on bench get staffed at any cost.

I remember, two openings in different projects, up for grabs, for which the managers approached me over different periods of time. I said I would be more than glad to work in their projects, moreso, as I would get off the bench in such scary times.

But a few days later, both managers sent me forwards of the replies from the staffing team mentioning that I was not eligible for staffing. It was very strange as I was on bench for two months now and available. This was something they did to around 600 people who go laid off.

One fine day, we all got a meeting invite stating the need to dicuss change in company policies, which implied layoffs. So I knew what was coming. They were very nice to talk to although they did not let anyone walk back to their desks to clear out stuff because they wanted to prevent us from talking to anyone.

After this, we were given out layoff packages and escorted with 5 to 6 guards like prisoners down to the exit of the building where all the other employees from different companies stood watching like a spectacle of some sort.

Different people took it in different ways but I decided to relax a bit before jumping back into the arena.

Lessons Learnt:

· Layoff is a difficult time for everyone and is not something to be taken personally. I got laid off because I happened to be on bench at a particular time. It was sheer luck and does in NO WAY mean I am incompetent in any way.

· Many people who I considered close to me over the period of 3 years in my company actually provided my name for the layoff. Office is a place to work and not to make best friends. It's all good business. It's good to have good relations with leadership team and coworkers but never expect anything during a layoff because if you are to be laid off and they try to prevent it, it would be their job on the table against yours.

· If god forbid someone is laid off, the first thing s/he needs to do is garner strength, focus, stamina and all this is to be done with a calm mind. So my suggestion is go on a short vacation. Go to some place which has always acted as a source of positive energy for you for some time. Don't waste more time than that. Don't think about the layoff during this time. Enjoy to the maximum. In five days you will be rested and focussed. Then upgrade your skills (by doing some courses if you can. in keeping with the market changes), update your resume and let it float in cyberspace.

· The most important thing to do post a layoff is keeping a calm mindset because it is in the most stressful times that staying calm helps one think and act better.

So I am currently on a vacation. This experience has not shattered me anyway. I have been laid off... I am good... I am strong... and I will be back !

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Love your work, not your company

'What are 10,000 deaths? Statistics. What is one death? Tragedy', Josef Stalin, the Communist tyrant who ruled the Soviet Union for close to 30 years, once famously said. Substitute the word death/s by layoff/s and you get the point.

While the job situation in India was really grim in 2008, it is likely to get terrifying as 2009 progresses.

While labour-oriented sectors like textiles, real estate and housing bear the harshest brunt of this fallout other sectors like financial services, banking, information technology, business process outsourcing, automobiles, oil & petroleum, retail, media -- only to name a few -- are seeing layoffs like India has never seen before.

In essence, the shadow of job losses will loom large over India for some time to come.

Companies do take advantage of your situation and try to get good talented people with lesser amounts.

Tales of how employees across ranks and levels are being sacked as the dark shadow of recession grows longer and longer.


  • Make a good portfolio as liquidity is important.

  • Learn... Learn... Learn.

  • Realise your potential and be positive. If you are talented, you will surely get a job.

  • Never think that bad times won't come.

  • Save some money for bad times.

  • Have an offer ready when you know the situation is getting worse.

  • Spend wisely; try to minimise your extra expenditure.

  • Build a strong network of people at your workplace.

  • Save minimum 6 months of your salary in your bank which will help you when you are without a job.

  • Don't be greedy -- be satisfied what you have.

  • Stay with one company for quite some time before switching jobs.

  • Realise your potential and be positive -- if you are talented, you will surely get a job.

  • Build a good rapport with job recruiters for these people can help you when you lose your job.

  • If your parents are dependent on you, better take a family health insurance; keep some cash aside for their medical needs.

  • In these times if your company puts you on the bench start looking out for a new job immediately.

  • If you have the money and the resources, upgrade your skill sets.

  • Understand that you lost your job not because you are inefficient but because companies are laying off to cut costs; if you were not talented or inefficient your company wouldn't have hired you in the first place.

  • The company is running a business, not a charity. So it can be expected to take suitable action in the best interests of the business. Don't take it personally or as a personal failure.

  • Security does not come from the Job you are doing or the company you are working with. Security comes from the knowledge and skills you have developed over the years which keeps you ahead of the crowd. Keep upgrading your skills so that you are always employable, even in the worst of the economies.

  • Keep your eyes and ears open for trouble in the company. Coz u never know when you will be next.

  • Avoid knee-jerk reactions. If your company lays-off people, don't panic. You survive coz you are either needed or are a good performer.

  • Once you are laid-off, keep your expected salaries for potential recruiters at a reasonable level. If your expectations are too high, you wont even get an interview call.

  • Never trust people at office. They will never be yours.

  • Love your work and not your company because you never know when your company stops loving you.

  • Make sure you have enough money to sustain yourself and your family for at least 4 to 6 months in such emergencies.

  • During this crisis, if possible, have another offer in hand, just in case your company decides to sack you. This happened in my case and I just like many other employees trusted the speech given by CTO and did not look for other job opportunity. In fact I refused a couple of offers during my tenure with this company since I felt I had given my verbal commitment to the company to stay for at least 4 to 5 years.

  • Never trust any speeches or commitments given by senior management employees during such financial crises as you never know when they might go back on their word.

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10 Tips for Working With Clients Remotely

Collaborating with clients you never meet face-to-face has become normal for most web workers. Ours is an industry where working remotely poses very few real obstacles

nearly every part of the web design process can be done from the comfort of a home office or coffee shop.

We’re lucky to have this flexibility, especially in tough economic times when a swanky office doesn’t fit in the business budget. Even if you do have an office, chances are you will land a few clients who aren’t located around the block. But you quickly discover that working remotely has its downsides.

Without face-to-face interaction it’s easy for major communication issues to develop… often without you knowing until it’s too late. Avoid a major meltdown with these simple tips.




1. Build Trust From The Start

A client’s trust will make or break a project. Without it you’ll spend endless hours explaining and defending your ideas. It’s easy to build trust when you’re meeting once a week to present your work and report your progress, but how do you do it with someone 10,000 miles away?

First, introduce yourself – and I don’t mean send them a link to your portfolio. I see designers skip this step all the time, but it’s essential. Before you dive in to any work, schedule a quick kickoff meeting. A video conference is ideal – I recommend Youtring – but if they can’t manage it, a phone call will work almost as well. If you’re in different time zones, wake up nice and early (or go to bed very late) to accommodate them.

Going the video route? Make sure you’re dressed appropriately and your environment looks professional. When you get on the call, take a few minutes to introduce yourself and highlight your accomplishments the way you would if everyone was gathered around a conference table and you were standing at the front of the room. Even if they know you and your work, it’s a good reminder that you are a professional who does this for a living… someone who should be valued and trusted.

Another way to establish trust early in the process is to make the client feel involved. Ask probing questions and brainstorm with them before you propose any solutions. If you’re short on meeting time, send out questionnaires for them to fill out. When it comes time to present work, make sure your solutions reflect at least a few of their ideas and explain to them how the idea was incorporated. This shows that you’re listening. Like any human relationship, that is half the battle.

2. Write A Bulletproof Contract

I know way too many freelancers accepting work without a contract because there is nothing fun about crafting up that type of documentation. It’s stupid no matter what, but when you’re working remotely this is extremely dangerous. You might get away with it for years, but sooner or later you’ll run into a disaster that could have been avoided had you bothered to get sign-off on a few key points.

As a general rule of thumb, if I estimate spending more than 10 hours on a project I will craft a contract and get a client signature before I start working. It doesn’t have to be complex, but it should always include:

  • A detailed scope of work. What exactly are you planning to provide the client? What isn’t included? Spend some time and make sure that it’s clear what they are paying for. When the client asks you where the forum is (you know, that one they forgot to mention they needed) you can simply show them that it was never part of the original scope they signed off on. Then you can add it on and charge accordingly.
  • A list of deliverables. Will you be creating IA documents, wireframes, style guides, and user manuals for that slick new CMS? Will they get ownership of layered PSDs and all your original artwork or just the HTML, graphics and source files? Make a list to avoid miscommunications.
  • A limit on revisions. When I first started freelancing, I failed to set a limit on revisions. 12 updates later it was clear what a big oversight this was. Clearly state how many revisions are included in your proposal and what your definition of “revision” is. (If, God forbid, they hate everything about the design and want you to start over, will you call it a revision?) Include an hourly rate for extra revision hours so that clients understand it doesn’t mean you won’t do them, it just means they’ll pay more.
  • A plan for client delays. It’s not uncommon to finish a site completely on your end, then wait 4 months for the client to provide the content. If you’re contract says “final payment upon completion” you’re stuck in limbo until they get their act together. To avoid this, set deadlines on content and any other milestone that requires client approval or sign-off. State in the contract that if content (approval, etc.) hasn’t arrived by the deadline, the site will still be considered finished and payment is due.
  • Payment terms. This one is a no-brainer! Half up front and half upon completion is common. If it’s a bigger project, tie payments to milestones so you’re not waiting months and months to collect a paycheck.

Not sure where to start? AIGA provides a Standard Form of Agreement for Design Services that you can customize for your needs.

3. Set Deadlines (And Enforce Them)

This is important for both sides. You already know you need deadlines to keep yourself on track, but you need to set them for the client as well. Asking for timely feedback keeps the project moving forward. Every time you produce something that requires feedback or sign-off, set a short-term deadline and make sure it’s documented in writing somewhere. If the client lets the deadlines slip repeatedly, they can’t complain when the project is delivered.

Having deadlines motivates clients to focus on your work, which may be one of a zillion projects sitting on their desk needing attention. It is also a subtle way of asking for (and getting) respect.

4. Communicate Clearly And Often

Since you’re not meeting face-to-face (and probably aren’t calling too much either) the limited interactions you do have are incredibly important. Make sure you craft your emails and messages carefully; realize that every word you write is amplified and your dry sense of humor isn’t going to come across very well. Best to just be straightforward.

Don’t inundate your clients with needless emails, but make sure you communicate enough to keep them feeling comfortable with your progress. Quick, regular check-ins help set everyone at ease. If you think the client is confused, pick up the phone and have a real conversation. You’ll be amazed how much can be cleared up in 2 minutes when you’re not trying to explain it over email.

Keep a copy of all your correspondence for future reference - you never know when you might need it.

5. Use Web Apps To Facilitate Communication

There are tons of great tools out there for online client collaboration. Pick the ones that work best for your process and use them religiously. Insist that your client uses them too.

I’ve run into quite a few clients who don’t want to be bothered logging in to a new tool – they would rather flood your inbox with email after email after email. Trouble is, email does little to keep everyone on the same page. Unless you have a dedicated project manager, get yourself a web-based project management tool. Make to-do lists, set milestones, and keep discussions in a public space where you can easily point back to them.

Basecamp is one of the most widely used web-based project management tools out there, and for good reason. It’s cheap, it’s easy to set up, it doesn’t have a bunch of extra whistles you don’t need, and clients find it intuitive which means they’ll actually be inclined to use it. It has to-do lists, milestones, a message center and a file repository and even time-tracking. Chances are it will cover most of your needs. There are plenty of other online project management tools out there if Basecamp isn’t your thing. Try huddle.net or wrike.com.

Additional online collaboration tools that you may find useful include:

  • ConceptShare - Get feedback on your designs and live web pages. You can add notes to the concept pieces and so can your client.
  • Adobe ConnectNow - A free, easy way to hold a virtual meeting. Screen share to present a PowerPoint, share concepts with your client or walk them through a live website. Use the video, audio or chat features to communicate while you’re presenting.
  • BlinkSale – Send out bills and reminders in a more formal way. Takes some of the awkwardness out of hounding clients for money.

Follow these steps and you’re well on your way to avoiding major conflicts and keeping your project on track. Stay tuned for the second half of this article and 5 more ways to successfully work with clients remotely.

Written exclusively for WDD by Mindy Wagner.

What are some of the challenges you experience when working with a client remotely? Please share your comments below…

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Twitter Useful For B2B Marketers


twitter homepageAs a business-to-business marketing platform, Twitter has legs. Some 56% of Twitter users say they use the online social communication site for business-related purposes, according to Rodney Rumford, a social-media guru and CEO at Gravitational Media. This stat, based on a survey of 700 Twitter users, suggests the service's business value, alongside its emerging utility for consumer marketing.

"Twitter is a goldmine," Rumford raved, speaking at the inaugural Gravity Summit on Social Media at UCLA Wednesday. He added that a number of big consumer brands are already on the site, such as Starbucks, which currently boasts about 6 million members.

Rumford also noted that small businesses are using Twitter to advertise, citing the example of a gourmet Korean taco truck business in Los Angeles. Since its launch in November, it has built a following through Twitter. "The driver tweets where the truck will be 20 minutes ahead of time, and literally hundreds of people show up," one conference attendee confirmed.

Marketers can use Twitter actively or passively, Rumford says, either by reaching out with promotional messages or setting up a "listening engine" that lets them track consumer sentiment in public postings on the site. Any active marketing must be handled carefully to avoid alienating consumers with the appearance of dishonesty or inauthentic, impersonal messages. "It's not a campaign," he advises, "it's a conversation."

As with blogs, Rumford conceded that "people are going to be saying bad stuff about your brand, and that's OK." He says negative comments can be an opportunity for customer-service intervention.

Yet companies are still mishandling this kind of functionality, Rumford says. He cited Motrin's slow reaction to widespread criticism on Twitter about an ad featuring pregnant women that was seen as misogynist.

On the upside, Rumford said efforts to drive people to particular online destinations can be tracked and measured by Google Analytics. Google also crawls and indexes all the conversation streams on the site.

Justin Goldsborough, social-media manager for Sprint, said the company uses Twitter to track consumer sentiment and customer service. But Sprint also uses Twitter and a corporate blog to coordinate business-related activities, says Goldsborough, who noted the site's growing penetration in all areas of American business.

"Retail employees are on Twitter," prompting some concern among management, but Goldsborough pointed out that it can connect these workers more closely to both customers and bosses. He cited BestBuy, which has a communal blog and chat site used by thousands of employees.

Online social media can be a highly effective advertising medium, but there are some pitfalls that can seriously damage a brand, the speakers warned conference attendees. All the presenters stressed the importance of honesty and transparency in Web marketing that relies on word-of-mouth.

David Reis, the founder and CEO of DEI, an online word-of-mouth marketing company, recalled the condemnation heaped on Belkin, an electronics manufacturer, for paying users $0.65 per post to write favorable reviews of its products on Amazon.com. "Basically, it's a simple problem: They lied," Reis said, emphasizing that marketers should always be forthright about their identities and mission.

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Slowing Economy Slowing Broadband Growth

The demand for broadband skidded sharply during the fourth quarter of 2008. We went through the latest quarterly financials of all the major broadband service providers and collated the net new subscriber additions –- and so far, things aren’t looking good. Of the 12 majors, five companies, including Cablevision, aren’t due to report their quarterly results until later this month or early March.

Nevertheless, the sharp decline in net new additions is pretty clear (see the chart below). The downturn has been particularly hard on cable companies, especially Time Warner Cable, which saw a 44 percent decline in new additions.

Verizon has posted the best performance so far, while AT&T is seeing some benefit from the rollout of its Internet TV service, U-verse, which commands higher bandwidth. AT&T lost about 1,600 DSL subscribers in the most recent 3-month period.

Qwest, Embarq and Windstream all saw declines in their subscriber additions – mostly because they cover territories where the housing downturn has taken its toll. Now even if the remaining companies report the same number of new subscriber additions for the fourth quarter of 2008, the overall broadband additions for the last three months of 2008 will still be down sharply.

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Top 100 Retail Websites of 2009




We can all learn a lot from what those around us are doing. One thing I tell the clients I work with is if you can’t lead, then follow a leader. Often (not always) you can learn a few tricks by looking at some of the “big guys”.

The list of top 100 retail websites for 2009 was released and it includes a variety of sites across numerous industries. I’ve listed the top 100 and the industries they are each in so you have a resource you can come back to and look at from time to time. There should be something in here for just about everybody.

Here’s the list of the top 100 in order of industry from A-Z.

Apparel & Accessories

American Apparel
American Eagle
Antrhopologie
Athleta
Avelle
Bluefly
Cusp
Design by Humans
Eddie Bauer
Gap
Karmaloop
Lands’ End
Levi’s
Martin and Osa
NikeID
Nine West
Shoe Line
Roxy
Under Armour
Under Gear
Vans
Wet Seal
Zappos

Books / Film / Music

Blockbuster
Borders
Chapters Indigo
iTunes
Pop Cuts
Scholastic





Computers / Electronics

Best Buy
Cable Organizer
CDW
Crutchfield
Garmin
Ritz Camera

Flowers / Gifts / Jewelry

BlueNile
Delight
Gold Speed
jtv Watches
Organic Bouquet
Think Geek

Food / Drug

Avon
CVS
Dunkin’ Donuts
Estee Lauder
Fragrance Net
Godiva
Gourmet
King Arthur Flour
M&M’s
Scentiments
Stila
ULTA
Walgreens

Housewares / Home Furnishings

CSN Stores
Land of Nod
Max Furniture
Smith and Noble

Mass Merchants / Department Stores

Amazon.com
Buy.com
ElderLuxe
Meijer
Overstock.com
QVC
Sky Mall
Walmart

Specialty / Non-Apparel

Action Envelope
Beckett
Diapers
Doctors Foster and Smith
eBags
Expressionery
Eye Buy Direct
Fat Brain Toys
Fathead
Faucet
Gaiam
Gardener’s
Lion Brand Yarn
MoMA Store
Music Notes
Muttropolis
Novica
Oakley
Organize
Dog.com (Pets United)
SamAsh
Staples
Sweetwater
Timbuk2
Tool King
VistaPrint
Zazzle

Sporting Goods

Gander MTN.
Journeys
Nascar Superstore
Orvis
Running Warehouse
Skis




The North Face

So the next time you are stuck trying to figure out how to approach your website marketing strategy take a look at each of these. This list should stir your ideas and get you moving in the right direction … even if that means asking the right questions or getting the right help in place to implement.

Remember though, plan carefully, choose your course wisely, and always test before saying “it works”. What is good for one industry may not work in another.

To your success.

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Top 100 Products of 2008



This list is in alphabetical order, with category noted beside each item.











* products in more than one list. There were seven of these: Amazon Web Services, Android, Cooliris, Dapper, Hulu, Twitter, Zoho

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