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I explained to her – I am born to a Hindu father and Hindu mother. Therefore, I am a Hindu by birth.Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”
The following are a few of my predictions and reasons behind them…
Prediction #1: The real estate market will crash again.
Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:
1. In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed.
2. The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm. In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.
3. The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?
4. In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?
5. Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?
6. The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.
My prediction: Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.
Other things I am watching for in 2010:
1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.
2. When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.
3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.
4. The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less.
5. The deficit will increase. The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.
6. Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof.
7. Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.
The Best of Times
I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.
The following are the bright spots for people who are prepared.
Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010.
The following recaps the year-end prices of gold and silver:
YEAR GOLD SILVER
2000 $ 273 $ 4.57
2001 $ 279 $ 4.57
2002 $ 348 $ 4.78
2003 $ 416 $ 5.92
2004 $ 438 $ 6.79
2005 $ 518 $ 8.80
2006 $ 638 $12.78
2007 $ 838 $14.77
2008 $ 882 $11.33
2009 $1100 (approx) $17.50 (approx)
In 2009, the Dow rose approximately 18%. Gold rose approximately 25%. Silver rose approximately 50%.
By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.
Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.
Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.
My Personal Investments
As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”
The following are things I have done to prepare myself:
1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income.
2. 2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects. Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.
3. My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes. Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.
4. I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.
5. I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.
6. With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.
7. In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.
In Conclusion
A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990. Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.
We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.
Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.Hiring activities in India Inc have gone up by 15-20% in the last four months compared with 2008, an indication that the job market is opening up and companies are loosening controls imposed on recruitment, training expenses and salary hikes.
HR consulting firms FE spoke to said the calendar year 2010 looks hopeful not only on the hiring front, but for salaries and bonuses as well. However, companies will continue to remain conservative on salary hikes across the board.
The exorbitant salaries and huge bonuses for people at the top management level, which saw a dip of about 25-30% in their cost to company (CTC) during the slowdown, could go up by 15-20% in 2010. This will include managing directors, chief executives, chief financial officers, senior vice-presidents and executive directors.
"In percentage terms, the total package might not move up significantly, but other benefits like perks and variable pay are expected to increase," said Arunima Sharma, principal consultant at Execuzen. Moreover, huge bonuses of about 80-100% will now shrink to 30-50%.
The top-level salary in the BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) sector at present is more than Rs 1 crore per annum compared with more than Rs 2-3 crore in the beginning of 2008.
In the manufacturing and engineering sectors, it is still lower at around Rs 80 lakh, compared with Rs 1 crore earlier. IT/ITeS, which took the maximum hit during the downturn, is ready to give salaries in the range of Rs 1.5 to Rs 5 crore. Pharma is still lower by 10-15% against the 2008 levels. Salary at the top level in this sector is between Rs 75 and 80 lakh per annum.
In the media sector, current salaries at the top level are more than Rs 1 crore, whereas, for retail and real estate sector, salaries might go up from Rs 75 lakhs and Rs 1 crore, respectively, per annum .
Said Shiv Agrawal, CEO of ABC Consultants, "Salaries at the top level are expected to increase in the range of 8-15%. The 15-20% hike will be exceptional for very good performers. The 2010 salaries will see more variable pay component, which will be performance driven."
According to Sharma, more and more expats from Europe and Japan are also looking to come back to India, especially in the financial services and advertising sectors. "I expect that by March 2010, we will see a turnaround and things will be back to normal in terms of salaries," she said.
Meanwhile, experts say hiring will continue, albeit to meet pent up demand (where hiring was frozen in the downturn and is now opening up).
According to Naukri JobSpeak index for November 2009, hiring activities saw a significant push across all sectors with auto, insurance and telecom sectors seeing a double-digit percentage growth.
Name: Amit Arora (name changed on request)
Age: 27
Company/Sector: IT/Technology and Consulting
Work experience: 4 years.
Background:
I had a major blast working in a IT consulting company for the last 3 years. I joined it in 2006 as a software test engineer and due to my added advantage as an eloquent orator and superb interpersonal skills, I made very quick progress and was sent on a long onsite trip to different projects which lasted over a year.
How I lost my job
2008 had been slow but steady and towards the end, unfortunately my project ended and I was placed on bench (which is generally tension-free time to be spent in between projects where people often go foe trainings or go on vacations).
But this time things were different. One project had ended and the next projects bid went to some other company.
Most of the people on bench were made a part of a list. The list was created to make sure that those people could be laid off. They needed some reason to show for a layoff besides cost cutting to avoid looking ugly.
So they asked the staffing team (which is responsible for getting people staffed onto projects) to not let the people on bench get staffed at any cost.
I remember, two openings in different projects, up for grabs, for which the managers approached me over different periods of time. I said I would be more than glad to work in their projects, moreso, as I would get off the bench in such scary times.
But a few days later, both managers sent me forwards of the replies from the staffing team mentioning that I was not eligible for staffing. It was very strange as I was on bench for two months now and available. This was something they did to around 600 people who go laid off.
One fine day, we all got a meeting invite stating the need to dicuss change in company policies, which implied layoffs. So I knew what was coming. They were very nice to talk to although they did not let anyone walk back to their desks to clear out stuff because they wanted to prevent us from talking to anyone.
After this, we were given out layoff packages and escorted with 5 to 6 guards like prisoners down to the exit of the building where all the other employees from different companies stood watching like a spectacle of some sort.
Different people took it in different ways but I decided to relax a bit before jumping back into the arena.
Lessons Learnt:
· Layoff is a difficult time for everyone and is not something to be taken personally. I got laid off because I happened to be on bench at a particular time. It was sheer luck and does in NO WAY mean I am incompetent in any way.
· Many people who I considered close to me over the period of 3 years in my company actually provided my name for the layoff. Office is a place to work and not to make best friends. It's all good business. It's good to have good relations with leadership team and coworkers but never expect anything during a layoff because if you are to be laid off and they try to prevent it, it would be their job on the table against yours.
· If god forbid someone is laid off, the first thing s/he needs to do is garner strength, focus, stamina and all this is to be done with a calm mind. So my suggestion is go on a short vacation. Go to some place which has always acted as a source of positive energy for you for some time. Don't waste more time than that. Don't think about the layoff during this time. Enjoy to the maximum. In five days you will be rested and focussed. Then upgrade your skills (by doing some courses if you can. in keeping with the market changes), update your resume and let it float in cyberspace.
· The most important thing to do post a layoff is keeping a calm mindset because it is in the most stressful times that staying calm helps one think and act better.
So I am currently on a vacation. This experience has not shattered me anyway. I have been laid off... I am good... I am strong... and I will be back !
While the job situation in India was really grim in 2008, it is likely to get terrifying as 2009 progresses.
While labour-oriented sectors like textiles, real estate and housing bear the harshest brunt of this fallout other sectors like financial services, banking, information technology, business process outsourcing, automobiles, oil & petroleum, retail, media -- only to name a few -- are seeing layoffs like India has never seen before.
In essence, the shadow of job losses will loom large over India for some time to come.
Companies do take advantage of your situation and try to get good talented people with lesser amounts.
— nearly every part of the web design process can be done from the comfort of a home office or coffee shop.
We’re lucky to have this flexibility, especially in tough economic times when a swanky office doesn’t fit in the business budget. Even if you do have an office, chances are you will land a few clients who aren’t located around the block. But you quickly discover that working remotely has its downsides.
Without face-to-face interaction it’s easy for major communication issues to develop… often without you knowing until it’s too late. Avoid a major meltdown with these simple tips.
A client’s trust will make or break a project. Without it you’ll spend endless hours explaining and defending your ideas. It’s easy to build trust when you’re meeting once a week to present your work and report your progress, but how do you do it with someone 10,000 miles away?
First, introduce yourself – and I don’t mean send them a link to your portfolio. I see designers skip this step all the time, but it’s essential. Before you dive in to any work, schedule a quick kickoff meeting. A video conference is ideal – I recommend Youtring – but if they can’t manage it, a phone call will work almost as well. If you’re in different time zones, wake up nice and early (or go to bed very late) to accommodate them.
Going the video route? Make sure you’re dressed appropriately and your environment looks professional. When you get on the call, take a few minutes to introduce yourself and highlight your accomplishments the way you would if everyone was gathered around a conference table and you were standing at the front of the room. Even if they know you and your work, it’s a good reminder that you are a professional who does this for a living… someone who should be valued and trusted.
Another way to establish trust early in the process is to make the client feel involved. Ask probing questions and brainstorm with them before you propose any solutions. If you’re short on meeting time, send out questionnaires for them to fill out. When it comes time to present work, make sure your solutions reflect at least a few of their ideas and explain to them how the idea was incorporated. This shows that you’re listening. Like any human relationship, that is half the battle.
I know way too many freelancers accepting work without a contract because there is nothing fun about crafting up that type of documentation. It’s stupid no matter what, but when you’re working remotely this is extremely dangerous. You might get away with it for years, but sooner or later you’ll run into a disaster that could have been avoided had you bothered to get sign-off on a few key points.
As a general rule of thumb, if I estimate spending more than 10 hours on a project I will craft a contract and get a client signature before I start working. It doesn’t have to be complex, but it should always include:
Not sure where to start? AIGA provides a Standard Form of Agreement for Design Services that you can customize for your needs.
This is important for both sides. You already know you need deadlines to keep yourself on track, but you need to set them for the client as well. Asking for timely feedback keeps the project moving forward. Every time you produce something that requires feedback or sign-off, set a short-term deadline and make sure it’s documented in writing somewhere. If the client lets the deadlines slip repeatedly, they can’t complain when the project is delivered.
Having deadlines motivates clients to focus on your work, which may be one of a zillion projects sitting on their desk needing attention. It is also a subtle way of asking for (and getting) respect.
Since you’re not meeting face-to-face (and probably aren’t calling too much either) the limited interactions you do have are incredibly important. Make sure you craft your emails and messages carefully; realize that every word you write is amplified and your dry sense of humor isn’t going to come across very well. Best to just be straightforward.
Don’t inundate your clients with needless emails, but make sure you communicate enough to keep them feeling comfortable with your progress. Quick, regular check-ins help set everyone at ease. If you think the client is confused, pick up the phone and have a real conversation. You’ll be amazed how much can be cleared up in 2 minutes when you’re not trying to explain it over email.
Keep a copy of all your correspondence for future reference - you never know when you might need it.
There are tons of great tools out there for online client collaboration. Pick the ones that work best for your process and use them religiously. Insist that your client uses them too.
I’ve run into quite a few clients who don’t want to be bothered logging in to a new tool – they would rather flood your inbox with email after email after email. Trouble is, email does little to keep everyone on the same page. Unless you have a dedicated project manager, get yourself a web-based project management tool. Make to-do lists, set milestones, and keep discussions in a public space where you can easily point back to them.
Basecamp is one of the most widely used web-based project management tools out there, and for good reason. It’s cheap, it’s easy to set up, it doesn’t have a bunch of extra whistles you don’t need, and clients find it intuitive which means they’ll actually be inclined to use it. It has to-do lists, milestones, a message center and a file repository and even time-tracking. Chances are it will cover most of your needs. There are plenty of other online project management tools out there if Basecamp isn’t your thing. Try huddle.net or wrike.com.
Additional online collaboration tools that you may find useful include:
Follow these steps and you’re well on your way to avoiding major conflicts and keeping your project on track. Stay tuned for the second half of this article and 5 more ways to successfully work with clients remotely.
Written exclusively for WDD by Mindy Wagner.
What are some of the challenges you experience when working with a client remotely? Please share your comments below…
"Twitter is a goldmine," Rumford raved, speaking at the inaugural Gravity Summit on Social Media at UCLA Wednesday. He added that a number of big consumer brands are already on the site, such as Starbucks, which currently boasts about 6 million members.
Rumford also noted that small businesses are using Twitter to advertise, citing the example of a gourmet Korean taco truck business in Los Angeles. Since its launch in November, it has built a following through Twitter. "The driver tweets where the truck will be 20 minutes ahead of time, and literally hundreds of people show up," one conference attendee confirmed.
Marketers can use Twitter actively or passively, Rumford says, either by reaching out with promotional messages or setting up a "listening engine" that lets them track consumer sentiment in public postings on the site. Any active marketing must be handled carefully to avoid alienating consumers with the appearance of dishonesty or inauthentic, impersonal messages. "It's not a campaign," he advises, "it's a conversation."
As with blogs, Rumford conceded that "people are going to be saying bad stuff about your brand, and that's OK." He says negative comments can be an opportunity for customer-service intervention.
Yet companies are still mishandling this kind of functionality, Rumford says. He cited Motrin's slow reaction to widespread criticism on Twitter about an ad featuring pregnant women that was seen as misogynist.
On the upside, Rumford said efforts to drive people to particular online destinations can be tracked and measured by Google Analytics. Google also crawls and indexes all the conversation streams on the site.
Justin Goldsborough, social-media manager for Sprint, said the company uses Twitter to track consumer sentiment and customer service. But Sprint also uses Twitter and a corporate blog to coordinate business-related activities, says Goldsborough, who noted the site's growing penetration in all areas of American business.
"Retail employees are on Twitter," prompting some concern among management, but Goldsborough pointed out that it can connect these workers more closely to both customers and bosses. He cited BestBuy, which has a communal blog and chat site used by thousands of employees.
Online social media can be a highly effective advertising medium, but there are some pitfalls that can seriously damage a brand, the speakers warned conference attendees. All the presenters stressed the importance of honesty and transparency in Web marketing that relies on word-of-mouth.
David Reis, the founder and CEO of DEI, an online word-of-mouth marketing company, recalled the condemnation heaped on Belkin, an electronics manufacturer, for paying users $0.65 per post to write favorable reviews of its products on Amazon.com. "Basically, it's a simple problem: They lied," Reis said, emphasizing that marketers should always be forthright about their identities and mission.
The demand for broadband skidded sharply during the fourth quarter of 2008. We went through the latest quarterly financials of all the major broadband service providers and collated the net new subscriber additions –- and so far, things aren’t looking good. Of the 12 majors, five companies, including Cablevision, aren’t due to report their quarterly results until later this month or early March.
Nevertheless, the sharp decline in net new additions is pretty clear (see the chart below). The downturn has been particularly hard on cable companies, especially Time Warner Cable, which saw a 44 percent decline in new additions.
Verizon has posted the best performance so far, while AT&T is seeing some benefit from the rollout of its Internet TV service, U-verse, which commands higher bandwidth. AT&T lost about 1,600 DSL subscribers in the most recent 3-month period.
Qwest, Embarq and Windstream all saw declines in their subscriber additions – mostly because they cover territories where the housing downturn has taken its toll. Now even if the remaining companies report the same number of new subscriber additions for the fourth quarter of 2008, the overall broadband additions for the last three months of 2008 will still be down sharply.
We can all learn a lot from what those around us are doing. One thing I tell the clients I work with is if you can’t lead, then follow a leader. Often (not always) you can learn a few tricks by looking at some of the “big guys”.
The list of top 100 retail websites for 2009 was released and it includes a variety of sites across numerous industries. I’ve listed the top 100 and the industries they are each in so you have a resource you can come back to and look at from time to time. There should be something in here for just about everybody.
Here’s the list of the top 100 in order of industry from A-Z.
Apparel & Accessories
American Apparel
American Eagle
Antrhopologie
Athleta
Avelle
Bluefly
Cusp
Design by Humans
Eddie Bauer
Gap
Karmaloop
Lands’ End
Levi’s
Martin and Osa
NikeID
Nine West
Shoe Line
Roxy
Under Armour
Under Gear
Vans
Wet Seal
Zappos
Books / Film / Music
Blockbuster
Borders
Chapters Indigo
iTunes
Pop Cuts
Scholastic
Computers / Electronics
Best Buy
Cable Organizer
CDW
Crutchfield
Garmin
Ritz Camera
Flowers / Gifts / Jewelry
BlueNile
Delight
Gold Speed
jtv Watches
Organic Bouquet
Think Geek
Food / Drug
Avon
CVS
Dunkin’ Donuts
Estee Lauder
Fragrance Net
Godiva
Gourmet
King Arthur Flour
M&M’s
Scentiments
Stila
ULTA
Walgreens
Housewares / Home Furnishings
CSN Stores
Land of Nod
Max Furniture
Smith and Noble
Mass Merchants / Department Stores
Amazon.com
Buy.com
ElderLuxe
Meijer
Overstock.com
QVC
Sky Mall
Walmart
Specialty / Non-Apparel
Action Envelope
Beckett
Diapers
Doctors Foster and Smith
eBags
Expressionery
Eye Buy Direct
Fat Brain Toys
Fathead
Faucet
Gaiam
Gardener’s
Lion Brand Yarn
MoMA Store
Music Notes
Muttropolis
Novica
Oakley
Organize
Dog.com (Pets United)
SamAsh
Staples
Sweetwater
Timbuk2
Tool King
VistaPrint
Zazzle
Sporting Goods
Gander MTN.
Journeys
Nascar Superstore
Orvis
Running Warehouse
Skis
The North Face
So the next time you are stuck trying to figure out how to approach your website marketing strategy take a look at each of these. This list should stir your ideas and get you moving in the right direction … even if that means asking the right questions or getting the right help in place to implement.
Remember though, plan carefully, choose your course wisely, and always test before saying “it works”. What is good for one industry may not work in another.
To your success.
This list is in alphabetical order, with category noted beside each item.
* products in more than one list. There were seven of these: Amazon Web Services, Android, Cooliris, Dapper, Hulu, Twitter, Zoho
